“In today’s complex and fast moving world, what we need even more than foresight or hindsight is insight.”
(anonymous)
Registration Now Open
£675 (*Oasis members),
£775 (non-members)
3rd-4th May 2023
Glaziers Hall, SE1 9DD, London, UK
This agenda is subject to small changes
* "Oasis members" refers to fully paid members, not 'associate members'.
Day 1: Weds 3rd May
8:00 Registration with coffee (75 mins)
9:15 Welcome remarks (20 mins)
Speakers:
- Matt Donovan, Head of Community Engagement, Oasis LMF
- Dickie Whitaker, CEO, Oasis LMF
9:35 Flood Modelling Methodology: Choices and Consequences (80 mins)
Aim: Flood modelling is easy to get wrong: it’s a high-gradient peril with losses strongly dependent on details of the built environment and human intervention in managing and controlling water. This session will hear from flood modelling experts on why they made the modelling choices they have when developing UK flood models and what are the potential consequences on modelling output and users.
Participants:
- Oliver Wing, Chief Research Officer, Fathom
- Jane Toothill, Managing Director, JBA Risk Management
- Steffi Uhlemann-Elmer, Director, Model Product Management - Flood, Moody's RMS
10.55 – Coffee Break (30 mins)
11.25 Flood Modelling Methodology: Panel Discussion (65 mins)
This Panel will discuss key issues arising from the previous session to include:
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how to validate and use models
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How to treat the inherent uncertainty.
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What insight can we gain from these models?
Moderated by Jessica Turner, Managing Director, Catastrophe Advisory, Guy Carpenter
o Nalan Senol Cabi, Catastrophe Analytics, Arch Insurance Group
o Barbara Orellana, Senior Catastrophe Researcher, Aon
o Emily White, Head of Catastrophe Modelling, Flood Re
o Chris Boss, Head of Actuarial, Aviva
12.30 – Lunch (60 mins)
13:30 ODS Poll – Slido (5 mins)
(OasisLMF)
13:35 The Strategy and Opportunity for Open Data Standards (ODS) (15 mins)
Speakers:
- Sibylle Steimen, Managing Director, Advisory & Services, Allianz Re
- Kirsten Mitchell-Wallace, Director of Portfolio Risk Management, Lloyd's
13:50 Open Data Transformation Framework (ODTF) and the Catastrophe Resiliency Council (CRC) (15 mins)
Speakers:
- Ben Hayes, CTO, Oasis LMF
- Mark Cravens, Principal, Cravens Consulting
14.05 Explanation on the Robustness, Performance and Ease of use of the Oasis Platform (30 mins)
This session will provide a demonstration of how easy and fast it is to run models on the Oasis platform and how it integrates with other systems. It will cover one of the main Oasis platform service providers, Nasdaq’s Risk Modelling for Catastrophes (NRMC) platform.
Speakers:
- Ben Hayes, CTO, Oasis LMF
- James Lay, Commercial Director, Nasdaq
14:35 Model Blending – Options and Advantages (20 mins)
Speaker:
- Cory Isaacson, CEO, ReThought Insurance Corporation
Cory will present his approach to model blending and outline the key benefits to help understand model uncertainty when using multiple views of risk.
14:55 Coffee Break (30 mins)
15:25 The Benefits and Challenges of Model Blending and Using Multiple Models: Panel Discussion (45 mins)
Moderated by Emma Watkins, Head of Exposure Management & Aggregation, Lloyd’s
o Rick Thomas, Managing Director, Acrisure Re
o Will Gardner, Founder and CEO, Combus
o Cory Isaacson, CEO, ReThought Insurance Corporation
o Paul Wilson, Partner, Analytics, Securis Investment Partners LLC
16:10 Catastrophic Wildfire Risk: Six Key Trends Driving Change in the U.S. (30 mins)
Speakers:
- Dana Foley, Head of Catastrophe Research, Chaucer
- Dr. Malcolm Whitworth, Reader in Engineering Geomorphology and Natural Hazards, University of Portsmouth
In 2022, Chaucer collaborated with the University of Portsmouth on an extensive literature review of recent research (2017 -2022), mostly focused on California.
This session will cover six trends that were identified from this research that are considered the drivers of wildfire risk across much of the U.S., and how that risk is changing. The speakers will then present how they are trying to apply this knowledge to better understand catastrophic wildfire risk for (re)insurance.
16:40 Approaches to Modelling Wildfire Risk (30 mins)
Speaker:
- Jamie Knippen, Senior Product Manager, Corelogic
In this session you will learn about CoreLogic’s wildfire product suite, specifically the US Wildfire CAT Model which is on the roadmap to be Oasis-ready. Details of how the model was developed, how it can be configured based on each carrier’s business guidelines and the model’s capabilities will all be discussed.
17:10 Across the globe, How the Coulomb Stress Models Add Value to Your Earthquake Loss Forecast (20 mins)
Speaker:
- Volkan Sevilgen, Co-Founder and CTO, Temblor Inc
This session will cover:
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The Coulomb methodology is an alternative method to help verify traditional approaches and the impacts of recent earthquakes.
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New technologies that forecast seismicity, aftershocks, and triggered events to avoid blind spots and reveal opportunities.
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How utilising the global ground motion, site amplification, and fragility models provides intercomparable losses in a standard format.
17:30 First day – closing remarks
DAY 2: Thursday 4th May
8:00 Coffee and Networking
9:00 Opening Remarks - day 2 (10 mins)
9:10 Complexity in Climate Change. How Should we Deal with it? (15 mins)
Speaker:
- Jeremy Hindle, Director, HindlesWorld Risk Solutions
Light Hill Risk Network: Best Practices for Modelling the Physical Risks of Climate Change.
9:25 Complexity in Climate Change: Underwriting the Transition (15 mins)
Speaker:
- Rebekah Clement, Sustainability Director, Lloyd's
Transitioning to a net-zero economy will require significant investment and impact all sectors in fundamental ways, far beyond simply expanding renewable energy.
Insurance has an important role to play, and the future will bring a whole new world of risks to manage and price. This talk will discuss where we are now, where we’re headed, and challenge the audience to consider how their skills will be needed in this transformation.
9:40 Complexity in Climate Change: Panel Discussion (60 mins)
How to implement expected climate change impacts in cat models. Users commonly want to make their own specific adjustments to existing model results, how to go about this and what are the limitations?
Moderated by Paul Della Marta, Head of Catastrophe Research, Partner Re
o Steve Jewson, Independent Climate Science Researcher
o Kelsey Mulder, Catastrophe Research Manager, Liberty Specialty Markets
o Lauren Mudd, Senior Engineer, Applied Research Associates
o Cat Pigott, Head of Science & Natural Perils, AXA XL
10:40 JBA and ARA: A Collaborative Approach to Wind and Flood Modelling (20 mins).
Speakers:
- Stephen Hutchings, Company Technical Strategist, JBA Risk Management
- Frank Lavelle, Principal Engineer & VP, Applied Research Associates
Main points:
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There’s a need for correlated wind, storm surge, and inland flood models.
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Why an ARA-JBA collaboration?
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Principal challenges and approaches to building a joint, correlated cat model.
11:00 Coffee Break (30 mins)
11:30 What’s the Future of Model Validation and How can we Improve? Panel Discussion (45 mins)
This panel will discuss the best practices, pitfalls and the future of model validation.
Moderated by Dickie Whitaker, CEO, Oasis LMF
o Tom Philp, CEO, Maximum Information
o Nigel Winspear, Head of Natural Catastrophe Analytics Research, Sompo International
o Crescenzo Petrone, Head of Model Research and Evaluation, Gallagher Re
12:15 Insurance Development Forum (IDF): Building Trust in Emerging Markets (20 mins)
Speaker:
- Nick Moody, Co-Director, Global Risk Modelling Alliance (GRMA) and Coordinator, IDF Risk Modelling Steering Group
By far the greatest investment in disaster risk modelling is for perils in North America and Western Europe. Yet the greatest risk to human welfare lies elsewhere on the planet.
We don't have to invest billions to make quantitative risk insight available, useful, and used in climate-vulnerable emerging economies. We must cooperate across sectors and geographies and adopt a set of behaviours and tools that promote sharing, transparency and trust.
This session will discuss how the Global Risk Modelling Alliance (GRMA) is helping with capability development, ease of access and connection to finance.
12:35 Lunch (65 mins)
13:40 Journal for Catastrophe Risk and Resilience (15 mins)
Speaker:
- Oliver Wing, Chief Research Officer, Fathom
13:55 Canada Earthquake Model: A Case Study of Collaborative and Current Age Model Development (20 mins)
Speaker:
- Svetlana Stripajova, Earthquake Model Developer, Impact Forecasting
Through our unique collaboration with Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) and Global Earthquake Model (GEM), Impact Forecasting has developed a multi-platform Canada Earthquake model using the Oasis model format and OED, based on the latest local science.
We explore how the recently released Canadian model (6th generation Seismic Hazard Model for Canada) includes fire following, liquefaction, landslides and tsunami for increased insight into the earthquake risk.
14:15 Review of the 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquake Sequence, Turkey (30 mins)
Speaker:
- Milan Simic, Managing Director of EMEA, APAC and Strategy, Verisk
This session will review the recent Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence. After a brief summary of the sequence from the hazard point of view, the performance of the built environment will be examined in order to discuss the likely economic and insurance impact, with lessons for the cat modelling industry and practitioners.
14:45 How Technology Enables Efficient Exposure Management: Panel Discussion (45 mins)
Fast changing technology is requiring us to modify the way we can handle exposure management functions. Old technologies are being replaced by vendor agnostic API’s and generative AI is about to significantly change how we work. What insights and challenges can we identify to make sure our functions continue to have utility?
Moderated by Ben Hayes (Oasis CTO)
o Dave Mell, Reinsurance Modelling Manager, Inigo
o Mark Pinkerton, VP, Software Engineering, Resilience
o Alex Cooke, Portfolio Manager, Vave
15:30 The Changing Face of Modelling Cyber: New Solutions for Ransomware Including Gang Profiling Available in Oasis (30 mins)
Speaker:
- Eireann Leverett, CTO, Waratah Analytics
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How could and should collaboration improve the methods used to manage cyber risk?
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What are others doing outside of insurance that we should be aware of?
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How we are building a new Ransomware model for improved market debate and insight.
16:00 Closing Remarks (10 mins)
Exhibition Stands
There will be exhibition stands from the following companies and plenty of opportunities to discuss their offerings and services:
* Cestida Ltd
* Combus
* Corelogic
* Fathom
* Impact Forecasting
* JBA Risk Management
* Nasdaq
* RMSi
* Temblor
* Xceedance