“In today’s complex and fast moving world, what we need even more than foresight or hindsight is insight.”
(anonymous)
Registration Now Open
Early Bird: £600 (*Oasis members), £700 (non-members)
From 3rd April: £675 (*Oasis members), £775 (non-members)
3rd-4th May 2023
Glaziers Hall, London, UK
This agenda is subject to small changes
* "Oasis members" refers to fully paid members, not 'associate members'.
Day 1: Weds 3rd May
8:00 Registration with coffee (75 mins)
9:15 Welcome remarks (20 mins)
Oasis LMF and LMA
Slido Polls
9:35 Flood Modelling Methodology: Choices and Consequences (80 mins)
Aim: Flood modelling is easy to get wrong: it’s a high-gradient peril with losses strongly dependent on details of the built environment and human intervention in managing and controlling water. This session will hear from flood modelling experts on why they made the modelling choices they have when developing UK flood models and what are the potential consequences on modelling output and users.
Participants:
- Oliver Wing, Chief Research Office, Fathom
- Jane Toothill, Managing Director, JBA Risk Management
- Moody's RMS (speaker TBC)
10.55 – Coffee Break (30 mins)
11.25 Flood Modelling Methodology: Panel Discussion (65 mins)
This Panel will discuss key issues arising from the previous session to include:
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how to validate and use models
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How to treat the inherent uncertainty.
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What insight can we gain from these models?
Moderated by Jessica Turner, Managing Director, Catastrophe Advisory, Guy Carpenter
o Nalan Senol Cabi, Catastrophe Analytics, Arch Insurance Group
o Barbara Orellana, Senior Catastrophe Researcher, Aon
o Two more TBC
12.30 – Lunch (60 mins)
13.30 Explanation on the Robustness, Performance and Ease of use of the Oasis Platform (30 mins)
This session will provide a demonstration of how easy and fast it is to run models on the Oasis platform and how it integrates with other systems. It will cover one of the main Oasis platform service providers, Nasdaq’s Risk Modelling for Catastrophes (NRMC) platform.
14:00 ODS Poll – Slido (5 mins)
(OasisLMF)
14:05 The Strategy and Opportunity for Open Data Standards (ODS) (15 mins)
Speakers:
- Sibylle Steimen, Managing Director, Advisory & Services, Allianz Re
- Kirsten Mitchell-Wallace, Director of Portfolio Risk Management, Lloyd's
14:20 Open Data Transformation Framework (ODTF) (15 mins)
Speaker:
- Ben Hayes, CTO, Oasis LMF
14:35 Model Blending – Options and Advantages (20 mins)
Speaker:
- Cory Isaacson, CEO, ReThought Insurance Corporation
Cory will present his approach to model blending and outline the key benefits to help understand model uncertainty when using multiple views of risk.
14:55 Coffee Break (30 mins)
15:25 The Benefits and Challenges of Model Blending and Using Multiple Models: Panel Discussion (45 mins)
Moderated by Emma Watkins, Head of Exposure Management & Aggregation, Lloyd’s
o Rick Thomas, Managing Director, Acrisure Re
o Will Gardner, Founder and CEO, Combus
o Cory Isaacson, CEO, ReThought Insurance Corporation
o One more TBC
16:10 Catastrophic Wildfire Risk: Six Key Trends Driving Change in the U.S. (30 mins)
Speakers:
- Dana Foley, Head of Catastrophe Research, Chaucer
- Dr. Malcolm Whitworth, Reader in Engineering Geomorphology and Natural Hazards, University of Portsmouth
In 2022, Chaucer collaborated with the University of Portsmouth on an extensive literature review of recent research (2017 -2022), mostly focused on California.
This session will cover six trends that were identified from this research that are considered the drivers of wildfire risk across much of the U.S., and how that risk is changing. The speakers will then present how they are trying to apply this knowledge to better understand catastrophic wildfire risk for (re)insurance.
16:40 Rating and Risk Scoring for Wildfire (20 mins)
Details and speakers TBC
17:00 Approaches to Modelling Wildfire Risk (30 mins)
Speaker:
- Jamie Knippen, Senior Product Manager, Corelogic
17:30 First day – closing remarks
DAY 2: Thursday 4th May
8:00 Coffee and Networking
9:00 Opening Remarks - day 2 (10 mins)
9:10 Complexity in Climate Change. How Should we Deal with it? (15 mins)
Light Hill Risk Network: Best Practices for Modelling the Physical Risks of Climate Change
Speaker:
- Jeremy Hindle, Director, HindlesWorld Risk Solutions
9:25 Complexity in Climate Change: Best Practice for Regulatory and Mandatory Disclosure (15 mins)
Speaker TBC
9:40 Complexity in Climate Change: Panel Discussion (60 mins)
How to implement expected climate change impacts in cat models. Users commonly want to make their own specific adjustments to existing model results, how to go about this and what are the limitations?
Moderated by TBC
o Steve Jewson, Independent Climate Science Researcher
o Kelsey Mulder, Catastrophe Research Manager, Liberty Specialty Markets
o Lauren Mudd, Senior Engineer, Applied Research Associates
o Cat Pigott, Head of Science & Natural Perils, AXA XL
10:40 JBA and ARA: A Collaborative Approach to Wind and Flood Modelling (20 mins).
Speakers TBC
11:00 Coffee Break (30 mins)
11:30 What’s the future of Model Validation and how can we Improve? Panel Discussion (45 mins)
This panel will discuss the best practices, pitfalls and the future of model validation.
Moderated by Laura Freeman, Head of Exposure Management, Apollo Underwriting
o Tom Philp, CEO, Maximum Information
o Nigel Winspear, Head of Natural Catastrophe Analytics Research, Sompo International
o Crescenzo Petrone, Head of Model Research and Evaluation, Gallagher Re
o One More TBC
12:15 Insurance Development Forum (IDF): Building Trust in Emerging Markets (20 mins)
Speaker:
- Nick Moody, Co-Director, Global Risk Modelling Alliance (GRMA) and Coordinator, IDF Risk Modelling Steering Group
By far the greatest investment in disaster risk modelling is for perils in North America and Western Europe. Yet the greatest risk to human welfare lies elsewhere on the planet.
We don't have to invest billions to make quantitative risk insight available, useful, and used in climate-vulnerable emerging economies. We must cooperate across sectors and geographies and adopt a set of behaviours and tools that promote sharing, transparency and trust.
This session will discuss how the Global Risk Modelling Alliance (GRMA) is helping with capability development, ease of access and connection to finance.
12:35 Lunch (65 mins)
13:40 Journal for Catastrophe Risk and Resilience (15 mins)
Speaker:
- Oliver Wing, Chief Research Office, Fathom
13:55 Canada Earthquake Model: A Case Study of Collaborative and Current Age Model Development (20 mins)
Speaker:
- Svetlana Stripajova, Earthquake Model Developer, Impact Forecasting
Through our unique collaboration with Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) and Global Earthquake Model (GEM), Impact Forecasting has developed a multi-platform Canada Earthquake model using the Oasis model format and OED, based on the latest local science.
We explore how the recently released Canadian model (6th generation Seismic Hazard Model for Canada) includes fire following, liquefaction, landslides and tsunami for increased insight into the earthquake risk.
14:15 Recent Event: Turkey Earthquake (20 mins)
Details and speakers TBC
14:35 How Technology Enables Efficient Exposure Management: Panel Discussion (45 mins)
Moderated by Ben Hayes (Oasis CTO)
o Dave Mell, Reinsurance Modelling Manager, Inigo
o Mark Pinkerton, VP, Software Engineering, Resilience
o One more TBC
15:20 Open Ransomware Model (30 mins)
Speaker:
- Eireann Leverett, CTO, Waratah Analytics
15:50 Closing Remarks (10 mins)