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Oasis Conference - The good, the bad and the ugly

SOLD OUT! 

 

We are pleased to announce that we will be holding our annual conference in London on 18-19 June 2019.

A half-day technical hands-on workshop will be held on 17th June (9am - 1pm). Limited spaces available. More information and requirements here. Please make sure you meet the requirements before registering.
The Workship will be held at a different venue: Uncommon, 1 Long Ln, London SE1 4PG (Map). 

 

Get in touch for questions about the workshop only: support@oasislmf.org
General inquiries about the conference should be sent to: julia.arevalo@oasislmf.org

 

CONFERENCE PROGRAMME

Subject to change.

 

18 June (Day 1)

 

8.15 – 8.45              Registration / Light breakfast     

 

8.45 – 9.20             Introduction 

Dickie Whitaker, Chief Executive (Oasis LMF)
 

9.20 – 10.15            What does the future of analytics and technology look like?  

Andy Yeoman, CEO (Concirrus) 
Jason Crabtree, CEO (Fractal Industries) 
Uday Virkud, Board Member (Xceedance)
James Lay (Commercial Director Insurance Business (Nasdaq)


W. Bradford Paley, Cognitive Engineer, Founder (didi) & Jeremy Sterns, CTO (Insurdata)

The Pool is a development environment for analytical processes, purpose-built for integration and interoperability among separate systems. The Pool’s front end lets people connect pre-existing or new code modules to create executable dataflow programs: digraphs. Its transparency allows both coders and non-coding domain experts to see and understand how data is manipulated at every step. This minimizes time, effort—and misinterpretation risk; especially in tasks that involve distinct roles, e.g., analyst and underwriter. Non-coders can now understand and verify the structure of analytics. These digraph programs are suited to coarse-grained parallelism, and the Pool's back end graph execution engine manages direct process-to-process communication on an arbitrary and scalable number of local or remote processes. It will be demonstrated applying Insurdata’s augmented exposure location information and enhanced property attributes; driving that better-quality data through the new OasisPlatform API v1. 

10.15 – 11.00           Climate change and catastrophe modelling 

Emma Raven, Principal Analyst (JBA Risk Management) 
Fred Hattermann, Head of Research (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research) 
Steve Jewson, SVP Model Development (RMS)

Demand is increasing to quantify the impact of climate change on catastrophe risk. However, uncertainty is high, and there are challenges in using the output of climate models. Is climate change already having an impact on risk which is not reflected in today’s catastrophe models? This panel brings together leading modelling experts to discuss the challenges of integrating climate change into our view of risk.

 

11.00 – 11.30          NETWORKING BREAK

 

11.30 – 12.30           WORKSHOPS 

Workshop 1
Climate change and the (Re)insurance industry 

Ioana Dima-West, Head of Model Research and Evaluation (Willis Re)
Giorgis Hadzilacos, Technical Specialist - Catastrophe Risk (PRA) 
Nick Hassam, Chief Commercial Officer (reask
)

Climate change is now the new normal, and society, regulators and management want more answers. What does this mean for exposure management and what changes to models do we need to have to deal with this?  This workshop will challenge how we are doing this and what are some of the options.

 

Workshop2
Simplicity vs. accuracy – benefits and challenges of increasingly complex catastrophe models and where Oasis can help

 

Ismaël Riedel, Catastrophe Risk Analyst (SCOR SE) 
Ryan Crompton, General Manager Modelling and Research Solutions (RiskFrontiers)
Sarka Cerna, Head of Product Development for EMEA, APAC and Canada (Impact For
ecasting)

From the early days of cat models there has been a steady drive to make improve models. Often complexity is seen as improving the models and potential use but is it? What are the roles of transparency and customisation and where lies the future in the complexity versus simplicity spectrum? And for all of these, where does Oasis play a role in helping with this?

 

Oasis Workshop (Limited spaces available.)
Update on Oasis, UI and technology - milestones and achievements 

Mark PinkertonCTO (Oasis LMF)  

In this session we will present the current Oasis platform and discuss recent developments. We will demonstrate how the platform fits together, with live examples of running a model in the platform via the MDK, web-service API and user interface.

12.30 – 13.45         LUNCH

 

13.45 – 14.30         Key research challenges for flood modelling 

Gary McInally, Chief Actuary (Flood Re)
Jeff NealDirector (Fathom) 
Jessica Turner, Senior Vice President, Catastrophe Advisory (Guy Carpenter) 
   Chair:
Claire Souch, Director (AWHA Consulting)

A study has been commissioned jointly by Flood Re and The Lighthill Risk Network which looks at key research challenges that are faced by the (Re)insurance Industry about flood risk modelling. The purpose of this panel is to investigate some of the following:

  • What are the priorities for flood research, why is there so much still to do for flood;
  • What practically should drive the focus for our research;
  • Where can academia provide the most value;
  • Where could collaboration help get results?
     

14.30 – 15.15           Model validation – where next

Alexander Alabaster, Head of Model Evaluation UK & EMEA (AON)
Niklaus Merz, Atmospheric Scientist, PhD - Catastrophe Research Group Catastrophe Underwriting Office (Partner Reinsurance Company)
Stefan Eppert, General Manager (KatRisk Germany)
          Chair: 
Will Gardner, Managing Director (COMBUS)
 

Model validation often becomes a chore to satisfy regulators and rating agencies. A much more interesting area is how do we get value from models that we use, where are the variances between vendor models and home-grown models, and what the future holds for end-users ability to calibrate and validate their cat models.

  • What should we be doing in this space;
  • What should model validation/calibration look like in the future;
  • Do we have all the data we should have;
  • How can we collaborate to improve efficiency?
     

15.15 – 15.35           Oasis and International Collaborations for Disaster Risk Insurance

                           Claire Souch, Director (AWHA Consulting) 

This session will give an update on Oasis projects to create open models for low- and middle-income countries and collaborations with the Insurance Development Forum, InsuResilience, the Centre for Global Disaster Protection, along with other initiatives to increase disaster risk insurance in highly vulnerable countries.

 

15.35 – 16.00          NETWORKING BREAK

 

16.00 – 17.00          Workshops 

Workshop 3
What analytical approaches would we need to develop or enhance in order to integrate climate risk reduction and adaptation in the overall risk signal?

Dickie Whitaker, Chief Executive (Oasis LMF) 
Kai Kim Chiang, International Conculstant (Asian Development Bank)

Workshop 4
How SAFE is your model? Sensitivity Analysis in flood catastrophe modelling 
 

Jeremy Hindle, Director (HindlesWorld Risk Solutions) 
Naomi Booth, Senior Analyst (JBA Risk Management) 
Stephen Hutchings, Head of Modelling (JBA Risk Management)  
Valentina Noacco, Senior Research Associate (University of Bristol) 

Workshop 5: (Limited spaces available.)
Droning on about Loss & Damage – making visual evidence talk to insurance through AI

Monica Rivas Casado, Senior Lecturer in Integrated Environmental Monitoring/Environment Programme Director (Cranfield University)
Tracy Irvine, Managing Director (Oasis Hub Ltd)

Can drone imagery change the face of how we assess and verify loss and damage? We examine the huge capability and accuracy of 3D drone imagery and its potential to produce rapid damage assessment and loss estimations when linked with AI. 

17.00 – 18.00         DRINKS RECEPTION

 

 19 June (Day 2)

 

8.30 – 9.00            Registration / Light breakfast     

 

9.00 – 9.15             Introduction 

Dickie Whitaker, Chief Executive (Oasis LMF)

 

09.15 – 9.45          Interoperability  


Claire Souch, Director (AWHA Consulting)
Matthew Jones, Head of Insurance Product Development (Nasdaq)
Shane Latchman, VP and Managing Director (AIR) 
   Chair: 
Ben Hayes, CEO (Oasis Palm Tree) 

Improving efficiency of the insurance industry enabled by interoperability are key drivers of collaboration and a key project lead by the Insurance Development Forum. This panel will explain what this means, how it will work and what the challenges are.

9.45                     Session change  

10.00 – 11.00          Workshops 
 

REPEAT: Workshop 2
Simplicity vs. accuracy – benefits and challenges of increasingly complex catastrophe models and where Oasis can help

 

Ismaël Riedel, Catastrophe Risk Analyst (SCOR SE) 
Ryan Crompton, General Manager Modelling and Research Solutions (RiskFrontiers)
Sarka Cerna, Head of Product Development for EMEA, APAC and Canada (Impact For
ecasting)

From the early days of cat models there has been a steady drive to make improve models. Often complexity is seen as improving the models and potential use but is it? What are the roles of transparency and customisation and where lies the future in the complexity versus simplicity spectrum? And for all of these, where does Oasis play a role in helping with this?

 

Workshop 6:
Bushfire - a changing landscape, new opportunities

 
Clark Woodward, Founder and CEO (RedZone) 
Céline Déandréisscientist in climatology(ARIA Technologies)
Iain Bailey, Cat Model R&D Lead (R&D at SCOR)

Bushfire has moved to the top of the list of “what keeps you awake at night” in recent years and we are all asking questions on how we can best model this peril. This workshop will review:

  • What are the key variables in the models;
  • How can we improve uncertainty from current data and information;
  • Can we collaborate to improve our understanding
  • How should we use these models?
     

Oasis Strategy Meeting (Full members only. Limited spaces available.)
 

11.00 – 11.30          NETWORKING BREAK 

 

11.30 – 12.30          Workshops 

REPEAT: Workshop 1
Climate change and the (Re)insurance industry 

Ioana Dima-West, Head of Model Research and Evaluation (Willis Re)
Giorgis Hadzilacos, Technical Specialist - Catastrophe Risk (PRA) 
Nick Hassam, Chief Commercial Officer (reask
)

Climate change is now the new normal, and society, regulators and management want more answers. What does this mean for exposure management and what changes to models do we need to have to deal with this?  This workshop will challenge how we are doing this and what are some of the options.

 

REPEAT: Workshop 4
How SAFE is your model? Sensitivity Analysis in flood catastrophe modelling 

Jeremy Hindle, Director (HindlesWorld Risk Solutions) 
Naomi Booth, Senior Analyst (JBA Risk Management) 
Stephen Hutchings, Head of Modelling (JBA Risk Management)  
Valentina Noacco, Senior Research Associate (University of Bristol)

 

REPEAT: Oasis Workshop (Limited spaces available.)
Update on Oasis, UI and technology - milestones and achievements 

Mark PinkertonCTO (Oasis LMF)  

In this session we will present the current Oasis platform and discuss recent developments. We will demonstrate how the platform fits together, with live examples of running a model in the platform via the MDK, web-service API and user interface.

12.30 – 13.45           LUNCH

 

13.45 – 14.45           Current risk level for Tropical Cyclone North America (TCNA) – lessons learnt 

Adam Sobel, Professor -Depts. of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, and Earth and Environmental Sciences (Columbia University) 
    Panellists: 
Dail Rowe, Senior Scientist and Regional Manager (WeatherPredict Consulting Inc.) 
Richard Dixon, Director (CatInsight) 
Tom Philp, Manager - Science and Natural Perils (AXA XL) 

I will discuss the influence of climate change on north Atlantic hurricane activity, the associated scientific uncertainties, and the limitations of the available methodologies and tools for assessing this influence and the associated changes in risk. I will present new results from an ongoing Columbia-Swiss Re collaboration in which we are using the Columbia tropical cyclone hazard model, in conjunction with other kinds of models, to develop an estimate of current hurricane risk, focusing specifically on how it may have changed in recent decades and how it will change in the next few decades. The uncertainties are large; a significant component of the work is developing new conceptual approaches to handle them, since the traditional detection and attribution framework is not helpful. I will close with some thoughts about the current portfolio of available modelling tools for this problem and how we might best expand it.

 

14.45 – 15.15           NETWORKING BREAK

 

15.15 – 16.15           Did the earth move for you? Earthquake models in 2019 and beyond 


Goran Trendafiloski, Head of Earthquake Model Development in EMEA and APAC (Impact Forecasting)
Nigel Winspear, Director (NW Ltd.) 
Paul Henshaw, Director of Technology and Development (GEM)
Paolo Bazzurro, Professor (RED)
            Chair: 
Will Gardner, Managing Director (COMBUS)
 

Earthquake has had less headlines than other hazards recently but should not be forgotten. This panel will review a number of key issues such as:

  • Do we understand earthquake models as well as we should;
  • What could take users of earthquake cat models by surprise;
  • What we can learn from the USGS;
  • Why using multi models makes sense? 

 

16.15 – 16.30          Closing remarks 

Dickie Whitaker, Chief Executive (Oasis LMF)
Claire Souch, Director (AWHA Consulting)

 

______________________________________________________________________

 

Hotel suggestions

 

Novotel London Blackfriars
46 Blackfriars Road, Southwark, London, SE1 8NZ, United Kingdom
https://www.guestreservations.com/novotel-london-blackfriars-newington/booking?gclid=Cj0KCQjws5HlBRDIARIsAOomqA2g78qdyu1BESyXbRHo2xWicQcOwFo59z1IPXX9JNgG0JFk5jqmvTkaAilEEALw_wcB
4min walk to the venue.


Mercure London Bridge 
71-79 Southwark Street, Southwark, London, SE1 0JA, United Kingdom
https://www.accorhotels.com/gb/hotel-2814-mercure-london-bridge-hotel/index.shtml 
10min walk to the venue / 4min by car.


citizenM London Bankside 
20 Lavington Street, Southwark, London, SE1 0NZ, United Kingdom 
https://www.citizenm.com/destinations/london/london-bankside-hotel?gclid=Cj0KCQjws5HlBRDIARIsAOomqA2PercNLvYAmsaF9CqF63ZQANiotW_KcvCvQ2SxYdKR3RKxoYu__-4aAq_pEALw_wcB
10min walk to the venue / 4min by car.


H10 London Waterloo
284 To 302 Waterloo Road, Southwark, London, SE1 8RQ, United Kingdom
https://www.h10hotels.com/en/london-hotels/h10-london-waterloo
14min walk to the venue / 5min by car.


Novotel London City South 
53 - 61 Southwark Bridge Road, Southwark, London, SE1 9HH, United Kingdom
https://www.guestreservations.com/novotel-london-city-south/booking?gclid=Cj0KCQjws5HlBRDIARIsAOomqA2M_QGza-x9l0OzBXNEPXJblkt3SbaXSHNuOWIBE9pTSFoDCIa_EeEaAndMEALw_wcB
15min walk to the venue / 7min by car. 


Park Plaza London Waterloo
6 Hercules Road, Lambeth, London, SE1 7DP, United Kingdom
https://www.parkplaza.com/london-hotel-gb-se1-7dp/gbwater?facilitatorId=PARKPLAZAPPCBMM&gclid=Cj0KCQjws5HlBRDIARIsAOomqA18GUWDEJboGqVY6BBFfgKdkclUZbndBF5UYz80AcY5u4SydKZP8lkaAliQEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds&utm_campaign=PP_Waterloo&utm_content=CTA
15min walk to the venue / 9min by car.


Park Plaza Westminster London Bridge 
Westminster Bridge Road, Lambeth, London, SE1 7UT, United Kingdom
https://www.parkplaza.com/london-hotel-gb-se1-7ut/gbwestmi?facilitatorId=PARKPLAZAPPCBMM&gclid=Cj0KCQjws5HlBRDIARIsAOomqA0za-5U-KXH5PJgOyz2iuXT3A9NrkMCS1oaV0lpAeVixOI4sKEt29MaAslrEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds&utm_campaign=PP_Westminster&utm_content=CTA
15min walk to the venue / 10min by car.