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Oasis Insight Conference 2025 - Paris

Session 8b: Wildfires in Europe

European wildfires are increasingly capable of catastrophic impact, with 2025 potentially the largest season on record. Climate-linked stochastic modelling shows longer seasons, northern expansion, and extreme fire behaviour that can overwhelm suppression. About 20% of French exposure is at risk, with embers spreading 600–1,200 m beyond the Wildland-Urban Interface. Wildfires are best treated as Aggregate Exceedance Probability (AEP) risks with correlated exposures, though truly catastrophic events remain possible under climate change.