“In today’s complex and fast moving world, what we need even more than foresight or hindsight is insight.”
(anonymous)
24th-25th April 2024
Glaziers Hall, London, SE1 9DD, UK
Full Members*: £750
Non-Members: £850
* Full members refer to fully paid up members of Oasis not 'associate members.'
Aimed at all levels in risk management, catastrophe modelling, exposure management and academics in the climate science and disaster risk space.
Described as the “best cat modelling conference in the diary” and benefits are:
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Truly independent and curated by your peers.
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Leading thinkers on climate change, model validation and the modelling of multiple perils and regions.
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Access to expert academics who are using and developing the latest science and approaches in climate change.
This is subject to small changes.
DAY ONE: Wednesday 24th April
8:30 Registration and Coffee
9:15 Welcome Remarks
Matt Donovan, Head of Community Engagement, Oasis LMF
9:25 Oasis Update
Dickie Whitaker, CEO, Oasis LMF
9:45 A Practitioner’s Guide: Science, Adjustments, and Implementation for Future Climate Change
Moderated and Introduction by: Ioana Dima-West, Senior Manager Science/Climate Change, AxaXL
- Baseline and accounting for past changes: Chris Webber, Senior Manager, Research and Development, Brit Insurance
- Tropical Cyclone: Ioana Dima-West
- Flood: Barbara Orellana, Flood Research Lead, Aon
- Severe Convective Storm: Chris Allen, Divisional Director, Model Research and Evaluation, Gallagher Re
- Q&A with audience
This session aims to offer a brief but concrete exemplification on how climate change science for future impacts can be interpreted and incorporated into current risk assessment tools.
Any future assessment needs to first establish a correct view of risk for the baseline and examples for future climate change implementation are offered across several perils of interest, from relevant industry representatives (brokers and (re)insurance companies).
This session is geared towards industry practitioners and cat model users. The list of perils and the examples offered are, of course, just a limited sample of what is being done in this space.
10:45 Networking Break (30 mins)
11:15 Uncertainties and Sensitivities in the Quantification of Future Tropical Cyclone Risk
Speaker: Simona Meiler, Postdoctoral Researcher in Weather and Climate Risks, ETH Zurich
This session will cover:
- What are key uncertainties and sensitivities in future TC risk change estimates?
- How do they vary across different hazard models?
- What are implications for model development and decision-making?
A comparative study of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for future TC risk change estimates across four different, academically available TC hazard models (STORM; CHAZ; MIT; probabilistic, climate-conditioned, IBTrACS-based CLIMADA in-house model) alongside alternative representations of socio-economic development.
11:35 Climate Change and Tropical Cyclones
Speaker: Ralf Toumi, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London
The session will cover:
- Major drivers of hurricane changes.
- A new hurricane hazard model.
- Attribution of major past events.
- The 2-degree warming projection.
12:00 Following Panel: Lessons Learnt and Insight from Climate Attribution Analyses
Moderated by Jessica Turner, Head of Exposure Management, MS Amlin
- Kirsten Mitchell Wallace, Director of Portfolio Risk Management, Lloyd's
- Ralf Toumi, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London
- Kelsey Mulder, Exposure Management Catastrophe Research Manager, Liberty Specialty Markets
12:45 Lunch (60 mins)
13:45 Writing Wildfire: Finding Opportunity While Managing Exposure
Speakers:
- Clark Woodward, CEO, RedZone
- Ellie Graeden, Co-Founder, RedZone
This session will explore how to manage wildfire as a standard peril, one driven by trusted models that allow risk to be assessed and written appropriately. The speakers will present concepts for assessing risk accounting for differences between individual properties and accumulation.
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Methods to assess location risk including how to consider homeowner mitigation efforts and commercial property risk.
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Using correlated risk zones for accumulation management.
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Strategies for taking advantage of real-time response to proactively reduce losses from active wildfires.
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Ways to incorporate these analysis methods into Oasis as part of an industry-wide approach to making wildfire insurable - and profitable.
14:05 From Wildfire Ignition to Damage: Insights from Differences Between North America and Europe
Speaker: Max Rijnierse, CEO & Founder, Terragrid
- Ignitions, Community Preparedness, Asset Vulnerability in Europe and North America.
- Measuring and managing exposure in both continents.
14:25 Wildfire Q&A
Moderated by Will Gardner, Founder and CEO, Combus
Speakers:
- Clark Woodward and Ellie Graeden, RedZone
- Max Rijnierse, Terragrid
14:45 USGS 2023 National Seismic Hazard Map – Key Updates and Their Implications on the Insurance Industry
Speaker: Nilesh Shome, Vice President, Model Development, Moody’s RMS
This session will cover:
- Key drivers of hazard changes.
- Benchmarking event rates and ground motions.
- Uncertainty in hazard results.
- Impact of the hazard updates on loss results.
15:15 Networking Break (30 mins)
15:45 Counterfactual Approaches to Understanding Present Day Risk
Introduction and Moderated by: George Freimarck, Business Leader - Catastrophe Modelling, Applied Research Associates (ARA)
Introduction to Counterfactual Views of North Atlantic Hurricane Risk
- Alec Vessey, Senior Analyst, Science and Natural Perils, AxaXL
- Testing the concept of combining upward and downward counterfactual analysis.
- Illustration of the concept by generating alternative histories for North Atlantic Hurricane using reforecast data.
- Benefits and challenges of this type of analysis.
Downward Counterfactual Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Losses Using Forecasts and Catastrophe Models
- Jessica Boyd, Modelling, Research and Innovation Lead, WTW Research Network
- Miami, Florida has not experienced a major hurricane landfall since 1992 and there has been significant urban growth since then.
- Between 2016 and 2019, forecasts showed the potential for three major hurricanes to make landfall in Miami, but they were near misses.
- A methodology is presented using historical hurricane forecasts and catastrophe models to quantify plausible alternative outcomes.
- For Miami, the actual losses are compared with those from a range of counterfactual scenarios derived from forecasts.
- This method could also be applied to real-time forecasts to generate a range of possible loss outcomes for unfolding hurricane events.
Revisiting The Atlantic Hurricane Drought Again….and again….and again….and again
- Richard Dixon, Inigo Insurance
- Revisiting the 2006-2016 “hurricane drought”
- Approaching counterfactual analysis using cat models and climate models
- Thoughts on using climate models for counterfactual work despite their imperfections
Using Seasonal Forecasts to Enhance our Understanding of Extreme Windstorms
- Sandra Hansen, Head of International Peril Advisory, Guy Carpenter
- The most extreme windstorms that could potentially occur in the current climate are estimated using seasonal forecast data together with a cyclone-tracking algorithm, and their potential losses quantified using a Storm Severity Index (SSI).
- Nearly 700 extended winter seasons of forecast data are analysed, representing a much larger sample of potential windstorms compared to that available from reanalysis or observational products.
- This dataset provides a valuable reference for validating and building catastrophe risk models, for understanding worst-case storms, windstorm variability, clustering, cross country correlation, and more.
Q&A/Discussion
16:45 Messages from Providers: "Lightning Pitches" (3 mins each)
- Combus - Will Gardner, CEO and Founder
- Corelogic - William Forde, Senior Director, Industry Solutions
- GEM Foundation - Andrés Abarca Jiménez, Product Manager
- Impact Forecasting - Siobhan Campbell, Analyst
- Renew Risk - Josh Macabuag, Co-Founder and CPO
- Risk Frontiers - Tahiry Rabehaja, Principal Software Engineer
- RMSI - Rahul Srivastava, Director Business Development - UK & Europe
- Temblor - Ross Stein, CEO & Co-Founder
17:15 End of Day Remarks
17:20 Networking Drinks
Bermondsey Bierkeller - Over the road (https://www.bermondseybierkeller.co.uk)
DAY TWO: Thursday 25th April
8:00 Coffee and Networking
9:00 Comments from the Lloyd's Market Association
Speakers:
- Laura Freeman, Head of Exposure Management, Apollo Underwriting (& Co-Chair of LMA, Exposure Management Working Group)
- Sanjiv Sharma, Head of Actuarial & Exposure Management, LMA
9:10 Current Climate: Worldwide Trends in Flood Hazard and How Cat Models Capture These Trends
Moderated by: Nalan Senol Cabi, Head of Catastrophe Model Research, Arch Insurance Group
Speakers:
- US: Oliver Wing, Chief Research Officer, Fathom
- UK: Paul Young, Technical Director & Lead Climate Scientist, JBA
- Europe: Caroline McMullan, Director, Research and Modelling, Verisk
- APAC: Steffi Uhlemann-Elmer, Director – Product Management, Global Flood Solutions, Moody’s RMS
This session leverages the scientific knowledge on flood hazard trend changes (if any) based on current climate. Panellists will share their insights from various regions to provide a world tour of current flood risk. Following with a panel discussion focusing on how catastrophe models capture these trends and uncertainties in data and models.
10:05 Defining a Cyber Event
Moderated by Marco Lo Giudice, Head of Emerging Risks, Lloyd’s
Speakers:
- Rick Welsh, CEO, Killara Cyber
- Rory Egan, Head of Cyber Analytics, Aon Reinsurance Solutions
- Justyna Pikinska, Head of Cyber Analytics, Gallagher Re
- William Mayes, Managing Director, Qualrisk
The idea of a cyber event generating widespread losses is intuitively obvious, yet it has proven very difficult to describe the ways in which a cyber catastrophe could cause billions of dollars in claims. As our collective understanding of the risk has improved, and the models that are trying to describe it have matured, the market is now evolving towards a more efficient use of capital. This evolution is underpinned by several initiatives, all aimed at reaching a common description of these events, for the sake of developing robust models and policy wordings.
10:50 Networking Break (30 mins)
11:20 The Art and Science of Model Evaluation
Speaker: Erica Thompson, Associate Professor of Modelling for Decision Making, Dept of Science, Technology, Engineering and Public Policy, UCL
- What is a good model?
- Who decides what a good model looks like?
In her role as Fellow of the London Mathematical Laboratory, Dr Erica Thompson is currently working on a project with WTW around principles for evaluation of catastrophe models for the insurance sector. Her recent book, Escape From Model Land, takes an accessible look at mathematical modelling and how we can do it better.
11:45 London Market Perspectives on Model Validation
Moderated by Dickie Whitaker, CEO, Oasis
Speakers:
- Nigel Winspear, Head of Natural Catastrophe Analytics Research, Sompo International
- Tom Philp, CEO, Maximum Information
- Chris Weller, Head of Exposure Management, Inigo Insurance
- Simon Waller, Executive Chair, JBA Risk Management
This session will cover:
- Insight from the LMA 'Exposure Management Working Group' on the expectations and guidelines from the London market.
- How can model vendors assist?
- Would standardising validation data and automate processes help?
12:45 Lunch (60 mins)
13:45 Updates From the Insurance Development Forum (IDF)
Speakers:
- Rachel Delhaise, Co-Chair of IDF Risk Modelling Steering Group (RMSG) and Head of Sustainability, Convex
- Ben Hayes, CTO, Oasis LMF
- James McIlwaine, Chief Product Officer, Maximum Information
This session will cover:
- Current IDF projects and the RMSG strategy
- Summarise the IDF funded Oasis technical projects for 2024
- Launch of version 2 of the Risk Explorer tool
14:05 The Impact of Storm Ciaran and What If?
Speaker: Alexandros Georgiadis, Head of Weather Risk Modelling (EMEA), Aon Impact Forecasting
This session will cover:
- Sensitivity testing of the impact of Ciaran (stronger/weaker, moved north/south) using Impact Forecasting’s European Windstorm model,
- Compare with similar events from recent history.
- Comparison with other similar events in the stochastic event set in IF’s Europe WS model.
- Seasonal/decadal climate variability and the 2023/24 wind season in Europe.
14:30 Lessons Learned From Recent, Global SCS Events
Speakers:
- Crescenzo Petrone, Global Co-Head of Model Research and Evaluation, Gallagher Re
- Bastian Manz, Head of Catastrophe Modelling, DEVK Re
- Samuel Phibbs, Head of Catastrophe Research, MS Amlin
- Bernhard Reinhardt, AVP, Consulting and Client Services, Verisk
This conference session will examine the impact of recent severe convective storm events in Europe (specifically Italy in 2023 and France in 2022) as well as the United States. The presenters will offer an overview of these events and their effects on the (re)insurance industry. Furthermore, they will delve into the valuable lessons that have been derived from these experiences, with a particular emphasis on identifying model inaccuracies and the subsequent adjustments made to catastrophe models based on these lessons.
15:20 Networking Break (30 mins)
15:50 Technology is Your Friend: Lessons for Insurers from the Insurtech Survivors in Building Resilience and Enabling Innovation
Moderated by Matthew Grant, CEO, InsTech
Speakers:
- Andy Yeoman, CEO and Co-founder, Concirrus
- James Lay, Commercial Director, Nasdaq
- Daniel Grimwood-Bird, Head of Sales and Marketing, McKenzie Intelligence Services
- Juan de Castro, COO, Cytora
16:35 Feedback Survey
16:45 Wrap up
We will be working with our partners below to make this another great event for 2024. We encourage you to visit their stands during the breaks to discuss their models and services.
