A collaborative approach to transparent, flexible, and future-ready catastrophe modelling
As climate-related losses surge past $100 billion annually1 insurers face mounting pressure toevolve their risk assessment strategies. Baloise has responded with a groundbreaking approachto catastrophe risk modelling that prioritizes openness over proprietary systems. In a recentproject, the Swiss insurer integrated Aon's Impact Forecasting models into its internal modellingsystem using the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework, an open-source platform that enablestransparency, customisation, and interoperability of catastrophe models.
This partnership represents more than just a technical integration; it signals a fundamental shifttoward transparency, adaptability, and shared innovation in catastrophe modelling.
Peter Michailow, Senior Risk Manager at Baloise, explains the strategic decision: "We decidedto implement Impact Forecasting models into our internal system to enhance our modellingcapabilities and provide a more comprehensive assessment of natural catastrophe risks. Theopen-source nature of the Oasis platform and the open-model approach of Impact Forecastingwere key factors in our decision-making process."
The approach demonstrates how traditional insurance practices are evolving. Rather thanrelying solely on proprietary black-box models, Baloise chose transparency and flexibility,enabling them to understand and customise their risk assessments while maintaining regulatorycompliance.
In Conversation: Peter Michailow with Dickie Whitaker
Dickie Whitaker, CEO of Oasis Loss Modelling Framework speaks with Peter Michailow at Aon'sCat Reveal Conference, London, to discuss what Oasis has done for Baloise's objectives. Checkout the full clip on our LinkedIn Page :
A Multi Partner Success Story
The success of this project stemmed from Baloise’s strategic partnerships, with eachorganisation each bringing unique strengths to the table.
Foundation Building: Guy Carpenter's Strategic Leadership
Guy Carpenter initiated the journey by helping establish a partnership with GEM to develop aBaloise-owned earthquake model. The firm provided strategic consulting and technicalguidance during the early stages, including recommending the adoption of the Oasis LossModelling Framework and advising on implementation while evaluating the modelling workcarried out by GEM.
Maximilian Strasser, Head of Global Model Development at Guy Carpenter, praised thecollaborative approach: "The collaboration between the three organizations (Guy Carpenter,Baloise and GEM) was extremely thorough, with pragmatism meeting state of the art science.Baloise did a great job communicating expectations and requirements, and the team spirit wasgreat. Despite the compressed timeline, he noted, " Baloise was able to master all the technicaland model details, which was impressive."
This foundational work established the Oasis framework capabilities that would later enableBaloise to integrate any type of Oasis LMF model.
Scientific Expertise: Global Earthquake Model (GEM)
Global Earthquake Model (GEM) contributed specialised seismic risk expertise. Vitor Silva,Head of Risk Engineering, highlighted three key benefits of the partnership: "First, it allowedGEM to better understand the existing building stock, seismic hazard, vulnerability, and risk inSwitzerland, and our incorporated modifications benefit the wider community that relies on ourdatasets and models. Second, it enabled GEM to focus on verification and validation activities,which we typically don't have sufficient resources for. We developed several tools for thispurpose that are now useful for other models. Finally, porting the model into the Oasis platformwas an interesting experience. We learned about the platform's particularities and the specificrequirements from the insurance industry'
Expanding Capabilities: Aon's Impact Forecasting
Building on Baloise’s established Oasis LMF foundation, Aon's Impact Forecasting team laterprovided a comprehensive suite of catastrophe models covering key perils, including flood,windstorm, severe convective storm, and earthquake, across multiple European countries.These models, deployed via the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework, enabled Baloise to integratehazard insights directly into its internal systems.
Martin Spacek, Business Development Representative at Impact Forecasting, reflects on thebroader industry implications: "We're excited to collaborate with Baloise to help with their catmodelling capabilities and it's amazing to see more market participants integrating the OasisLMF into their essential exposure management systems. This trend confirms that the journey webegan, as an industry, over a decade ago is paying off."
Technical Innovation Meets Practical Application
The integration process required sophisticated technical coordination. The Oasis Loss ModellingFramework served as the backbone, enabling different models and data sources to worktogether seamlessly. This open-source platform allowed Baloise to maintain full visibility intotheir risk calculations while benefiting from best-in-class catastrophe modelling expertise.
The technical achievements were matched by practical benefits. Baloise gained an independentview of risk while improving transparency and understanding of their exposure. The flexibility ofthe open-source approach means they can adapt and evolve their models as climate riskschange and regulatory requirements develop.
Industry Impact and Future Implications
This collaboration represents a significant milestone in the evolution of catastrophe modelling,demonstrating that the insurance industry is moving toward more collaborative, transparentapproaches to risk assessment. By combining the transparency of open-source platforms withthe expertise of multiple industry leaders, Baloise has created a template for future riskmodelling initiatives that shows insurers can maintain competitive advantages while embracingtransparency and collaboration.
As climate risks become more complex and unpredictable, the ability to combine multipleperspectives and expertise sources becomes increasingly valuable. The integration of multipleexpert perspectives, from hazard modelling to vulnerability assessment to regulatorycompliance, creates a more robust and reliable risk assessment framework that not onlybenefits individual insurers but strengthens the entire industry's ability to understand andrespond to evolving risks.
The future of catastrophe modelling lies not in isolated, proprietary solutions, but in transparent,collaborative frameworks that combine the best expertise from across the industry. Thiscollaboration signals a shift toward transparency, adaptability, connectivity and sharedinnovation in catastrophe modelling. As partnerships like this continue to emerge, they arepaving the way for a smarter, more open insurance future and creating a foundation for moreresilient, responsive, and effective risk management in an era of increasing climate uncertainty.Baloise's approach demonstrates that this future is not just possible, it's already here.
1. Swiss Re Institute. (2024, December 5). Hurricanes, severe thunderstorms and floods driveinsured losses above USD 100 billion for 5th consecutive year [Press release]. Swiss Re