A collaborative approach to transparent, flexible, and future-ready catastrophe modelling
As climate-related losses surge past $100 billion annually 1 insurers face mounting pressure to evolve their risk assessment strategies. Baloise has responded with a groundbreaking approach to catastrophe risk modelling that prioritizes openness over proprietary systems. In a recent project, the Swiss insurer integrated Aon's Impact Forecasting models into its internal modelling system using the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework, an open-source platform that enables transparency, customisation, and interoperability of catastrophe models.
This partnership represents more than just a technical integration; it signals a fundamental shift toward transparency, adaptability, and shared innovation in catastrophe modelling.
Peter Michailow, Senior Risk Manager at Baloise, explains the strategic decision: "We decided to implement Impact Forecasting models into our internal system to enhance our modelling capabilities and provide a more comprehensive assessment of natural catastrophe risks. The open-source nature of the Oasis platform and the open-model approach of Impact Forecasting were key factors in our decision-making process."
The approach demonstrates how traditional insurance practices are evolving. Rather than relying solely on proprietary black-box models, Baloise chose transparency and flexibility,enabling them to understand and customise their risk assessments while maintaining regulatory compliance.
In Conversation: Peter Michailow with Dickie Whitaker
Dickie Whitaker, CEO of Oasis Loss Modelling Framework speaks with Peter Michailow at Aon's Cat Reveal Conference, London, to discuss what Oasis has done for Baloise's objectives. Checkout the full clip on our LinkedIn Page :
A Multi Partner Success Story
The success of this project stemmed from Baloise’s strategic partnerships, with each organisation each bringing unique strengths to the table.
Foundation Building: Guy Carpenter's Strategic Leadership
Guy Carpenter initiated the journey by helping establish a partnership with GEM to develop a Baloise-owned earthquake model. The firm provided strategic consulting and technical guidance during the early stages, including recommending the adoption of the Oasis LossM odelling Framework and advising on implementation while evaluating the modelling work carried out by GEM.
Maximilian Strasser, Head of Global Model Development at Guy Carpenter, praised the collaborative approach: "The collaboration between the three organizations (Guy Carpenter, Baloise and GEM) was extremely thorough, with pragmatism meeting state of the art science. Baloise did a great job communicating expectations and requirements, and the team spirit was great. Despite the compressed timeline, he noted, " Baloise was able to master all the technicaland model details, which was impressive."
This foundational work established the Oasis framework capabilities that would later enable Baloise to integrate any type of Oasis LMF model.
Scientific Expertise: Global Earthquake Model (GEM)
Global Earthquake Model (GEM) contributed specialised seismic risk expertise. Vitor Silva, Head of Risk Engineering, highlighted three key benefits of the partnership: "First, it allowed GEM to better understand the existing building stock, seismic hazard, vulnerability, and risk in Switzerland, and our incorporated modifications benefit the wider community that relies on our datasets and models. Second, it enabled GEM to focus on verification and validation activities, which we typically don't have sufficient resources for. We developed several tools for this purpose that are now useful for other models. Finally, porting the model into the Oasis platform was an interesting experience. We learned about the platform's particularities and the specific requirements from the insurance industry'
Expanding Capabilities: Aon's Impact Forecasting
Building on Baloise’s established Oasis LMF foundation, Aon's Impact Forecasting team laterprovided a comprehensive suite of catastrophe models covering key perils, including flood, windstorm, severe convective storm, and earthquake, across multiple European countries. These models, deployed via the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework, enabled Baloise to integratehazard insights directly into its internal systems.
Martin Spacek, Business Development Representative at Impact Forecasting, reflects on thebroader industry implications: "We're excited to collaborate with Baloise to help with their catmodelling capabilities and it's amazing to see more market participants integrating the Oasis LMF into their essential exposure management systems. This trend confirms that the journey webegan, as an industry, over a decade ago is paying off."
Technical Innovation Meets Practical Application
The integration process required sophisticated technical coordination. The Oasis Loss Modelling Framework served as the backbone, enabling different models and data sources to work together seamlessly. This open-source platform allowed Baloise to maintain full visibility intotheir risk calculations while benefiting from best-in-class catastrophe modelling expertise.
The technical achievements were matched by practical benefits. Baloise gained an independent view of risk while improving transparency and understanding of their exposure. The flexibility of the open-source approach means they can adapt and evolve their models as climate risks change and regulatory requirements develop.
Industry Impact and Future Implications
This collaboration represents a significant milestone in the evolution of catastrophe modelling, demonstrating that the insurance industry is moving toward more collaborative, transparent approaches to risk assessment. By combining the transparency of open-source platforms with the expertise of multiple industry leaders, Baloise has created a template for future risk modelling initiatives that shows insurers can maintain competitive advantages while embracing transparency and collaboration.
As climate risks become more complex and unpredictable, the ability to combine multiple perspectives and expertise sources becomes increasingly valuable. The integration of multiple expert perspectives, from hazard modelling to vulnerability assessment to regulatory compliance, creates a more robust and reliable risk assessment framework that not only benefits individual insurers but strengthens the entire industry's ability to understand and respond to evolving risks.
The future of catastrophe modelling lies not in isolated, proprietary solutions, but in transparent, collaborative frameworks that combine the best expertise from across the industry. This collaboration signals a shift toward transparency, adaptability, connectivity and shared innovation in catastrophe modelling. As partnerships like this continue to emerge, they are paving the way for a smarter, more open insurance future and creating a foundation for more resilient, responsive, and effective risk management in an era of increasing climate uncertainty. Baloise's approach demonstrates that this future is not just possible, it's already here.
1. Swiss Re Institute. (2024, December 5). Hurricanes, severe thunderstorms and floods drive insured losses above USD 100 billion for 5th consecutive year [Press release]. Swiss Re