Welcome to our final newsletter of 2023. It's been a very positive and productive year for Oasis and we always want to engage with the cat modelling community, so please get in touch with any feedback or questions.
Oasis LMF now has the most performant and reliable cat modelling platform available for multiple views of risk
We are coming to the end of the three year 'Oasis at Scale' project which has been funded by multiple companies in the re/insurance industry (https://oasislmf.org/news/global-reinsurance-sector-invests-future-oasis-loss-modelling-framework-and-open-source-standards). This backing highlights the confidence these organisations have in the success and benefits of Oasis and we thank them and all of our members for their continued support. The aim of this project was to develop the Oasis platform to be an 'industrial strength' performant and reliable cat modelling platform that would be a viable alternative to others currently used in the market. Well, we can honestly say, following years of hard work, the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework is faster and more reliable than any other cat modelling platform available that supports multiple views of risk in one place. The main developments over the last three years are:
- Fully, extensive, distributed architecture to ensure fast and reliable performance. The run times have improved by around 77% over this time, based on modelling a portfolio of 258k risks with 250 samples through a detailed EUWS model. Modelling large portfolios using detailed models and granular outputs no longer requires hours to days, but minutes in Oasis.
- Reliability has been a key focus and Guy Carpenter have reported 'first time model run failure rate' of only 4% from over 2,600 analyses in a year, across 60 users with an average of 14 million risks modelled per week. It's important to note that the majority of these failures were due to validation errors in the exposure data rather than platform failure.
- The Oasis calculation kernel has undergone significant development and now utilises a 'Full Monte Carlo' sampling approach which samples the hazard and vulnerability distributions independently rather than a convolution of the two. This produces a more robust and accurate view of the loss distributions and uncertainty, and allows for more detailed correlation. The Oasis engine also produces extensive model outputs using the Open Results Data (ORD) format for all levels of hierarchy and complex financial terms.
- Stochastic disaggregation is now possible so that aggregate data can be broken down and modelled more accurately.
- Post Loss Amplification (PLA) is now incorporated into the Oasis platform to consider inflation of losses.
- OED validation tools to highlight invalid exposure data before an analysis is executed and allow for correction and resubmission.
- Improved data and analytical mechanisms for improved querying of exposure, results and model data
Following the huge amount of new functionality and improvements we have delivered since 2021, the aim for 2024 is to support the model providers and users to start fully utilising all of these developments so they can provide better models and risk insight for the community.
Here's What's Coming up in 2024...........
Next year will be an exciting one for us with loads going on in the community.......
- Membership: With a couple of new members in 2023, we are aiming to finalise a few more early next year to expand the community support.
- New Models: The following providers are working towards having their models available in Oasis in 2024:
- Off shore renewable energy (US) - Renew Risk (https://renew-risk.com/) - Open ransomware model - Concinnity Risks (funded by Lighthill Risk Network) - Ventrx: Climate conditioned global flood and wind model - Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU) (https://ventrx.com/) - US and Canada Wildfire - Red Zone (https://www.redzone.co/)
- Moody's RMS Integration: We are really excited to support this integration initiative to access Oasis-based models through the RMS Intelligent Risk Platform (IRP) via API with Nasdaq's Risk Modelling for Catastrophes (NRMC) interface. This opens up the market for users of all models.
- Market Events: We will be attending the RAA Conference in Orlando, FL from 26th-29th February (https://my.reinsurance.org/RAA/RAA/Events/CatRiskMgmt2024.aspx). If you are attending and would like to arrange a chat, please get in touch.
- Open Data Standards (ODS): A data schema for marine classes will be released in Q1 2024 to accompany the cyber data standard released this year.
Following the success of the events this year, we look forward to hosting Insight conferences in London, Bermuda and Zurich in 2024. See the 'Save the Date' messages below.
SAVE THE DATE
Oasis Insight Conference - London in collaboration with the Lloyd's Market Association
24th - 25th April 2024
Glazier's Hall, London, SE1 9DD
Registration for full members will open on 15th January and on 1st February for non-members
Full Members: £750
Following the success and your positive feedback from the Oasis Insight conference in London this year, we have decided to return to Glaziers Hall, London, SE1 9DD for 2024We will be developing the agenda in collaboration with the LMA over the coming months but please get in touch if there is something you think the community should hear about.
"Oasis has a proven track record of generating excellent, unique content for their conferences. As impressive, and perhaps more important, is that they manage to do so for a reasonable registration fee. The 2023 agenda was full of high quality talks and refreshing perspectives from the speakers. Managers can feel confident that their teams attending Oasis Insight will be learning about the most pressing matters in cat risk without having to break their budgets. It is a rare event that is as suitable for grads as it is for industry veterans. The transparency and openness that we hear Oasis often talk about is prevalent throughout the agenda. Most speakers are very happy to engage professionally or academically with anyone. It can generate real debate and discussion at times, which we certainly need more of." - Dana Foley, Head of Catastrophe Research, Chaucer Group
“The Oasis Insight conference in London this year included a really packed agenda, full of distinguished and insightful speakers and discussion, and tangible, actionable takeaways. I’m already looking forward to seeing how the 2024 event builds on the topics covered this year and continues to drive improvements in our understanding of catastrophe risk.”- Emma Watkins, Head of Exposure Management and Aggregation at Lloyd's
HERE. We will be working with our partners below to make this another great event for 2024.Link to the photo gallery and presentations from Oasis Insight, London 2023 can be found
SAVE THE DATE
Oasis Insight Conference - Bermuda
12th June 2024
Royal Bermuda Yacht Club, Bermuda
Oasis is returning to Bermuda for another 'Oasis Insight' conference following its last event there in 2022.Details of the event will be released closer to the date but it will be free to attend.