Session 7 : Advances in Earthquake Catastrophe Modelling: Capturing Full Event Sequences and Accounting for Near-Term Hazard Changes Following Large Events
In this session, John Wardman (MAX Info), Paolo Bazzurro (RED), Ross Stein (Temblor), and Salvatore Iacoletti (AXA XL) examined the limitations of traditional earthquake catastrophe models, which often overlook the complexities of seismic sequences, including foreshocks, aftershocks, and triggered events. They introduced innovative approaches that incorporate full earthquake sequences into risk models, utilizing methods like Coulomb stress transfer and Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models to dynamically update post-event rupture probabilities. These advancements aim to provide a more comprehensive assessment of seismic risk, particularly in the aftermath of significant earthquakes.