Session 6: What if Storm Kyrill has occurred differently?

A “what if” analysis of Storm Kyrill showed small wind speed changes produce dramatic, non-linear impacts on losses: +10% wind speeds → +200% losses (€7.15B → €21.94B), –10% → –71% losses. This rapid sensitivity testing highlights modelling uncertainty and portfolio exposure, though it’s distinct from full physics-based counterfactual simulations.